2003/04 Deyr Crop Harvest in Southern
Somalia
Fieldwork
for the Deyr 2003/04 harvest assessment in southern Somalia
was carried out between 15-29 February. FSAU
field monitors gathered information on Deyr crop harvest
production and analysed results at a workshop
from 5-8 March.
A
summary of the main findings follows.
Rainfall
Delayed
onset of rainfall was the main abnormal feature of the 2003/04 Deyr.
Rainfall was irregular in terms of rainfall coverage and distribution over time and space.
Useful rainfall started in the third dekad (10-day period) of
October 2003 in parts of Bay region (Qansaxdhere and Diinsoor), Middle Juba (Sakow) and Gedo (southern districts). Elsewhere,
rainfall generally started in the second dekad of November.
The worst affected regions in terms of rainfall distribution and coverage were : Bakol, Hiran,
Lower
Juba, Middle Shabelle and northern districts of Gedo.
Cereal
Production
In
total, the 2003/04 Deyr was normal in terms of cereal
production. The reason is mainly attributed to existing infrastructure in Lower and Middle
Shabelle for irrigated maize. Moreover, good rainfall encouraged farmers in Bay region to
plant new sorghum instead of relying on traditional Deyr-ratoon
cropping (lower-yielding, second-generation off-shoots from the previous Gu season sorghum).
An
estimated area of 284,450 Ha of cereal (67% sorghum and 33% maize) has been harvested in
eight regions of southern Somalia.
The combined cereal production is estimated at 102,000 MT (53% sorghum and 47% maize) which is close to the
post-war (1995-2002) Deyr season average. See Table 3 below.
Cereal production fell below the Deyr-2001 and Deyr-2002 by 28% and 41%, respectively.
FSAU
estimated the Deyr 2003 crop production figure to be around
147,000 MT at establishment, however, the final harvest was
reduced for the following reasons.
Factors
that affected sorghum production:
Rainfall
of the 2003/04 Deyr was sufficient for sorghum growth and
development in localized areas. Most sorghum,
however, suffered moisture stress that consequently
caused yields to decline.
Heavy
winds at the sorghum development stage exacerbated
prevailing moisture stress, hence affecting sorghum yields.
Insecurity
also contributed to low production of sorghum
in parts of Bay and Middle Juba regions.
Factors
that affected maize production:
Rain-dependent
maize failed to reach development and grain
filling stages (although this yielded high value fodder for cattle).
Irrigated
maize suffered moisture stress due to the drop in river levels for gravity irrigation and
expensive diesel for pump irrigated maize.
Stalk-borers
(insects) contributed to yield reduction of maize.
The
delay of the 2003/04 Deyr encouraged production of sesame in
both irrigated and rain fed areas. Production of sesame will certainly
adjust the cereal of the 2003/04 Deyr in terms of cash income. The web-worm and moisture stress affected rain fed sesame more than irrigated sesame.
High
Sorghum Prices in Bakol, Hiran and
Gedo
High
sorghum prices, on average 49% higher than last year (see Sorghum Belt Prices and Trends
article on the next page) are creating access problems for the poor agro-pastoral food
economy groups (FEGs) of Bakol, Hiran and Gedo. Aid Agencies (ACF, World
Vision, and MSF) are already detecting high malnutrition rates in the five districts of Bakol, the three districts of Hiran and
northern districts of Gedo region.
Bay region is the main sorghum supplier of Bakol, Hiran and Gedo
and currently there are large stocks of sorghum at Bay farmers’ disposal. Sorghum
prices in Bay region are reasonable (40-45,000 Ssh/50-kg sack). Roadblocks for extorting
illegal taxes, however, are pushing up sorghum prices in Bakol,
Hiran and Gedo regions. FFW
projects by CARE and WFP are mitigating the negative effects of high sorghum prices in the
drought affected areas by lowering prices from 150,000 Ssh/sack
to 110-120,000 Ssh/sack.Figure
7 : Regional
Contribution to the total 2003/04 Deyr Cereal Production of Southern Somalia.
Table
5 : 2003/2004 Deyr Cereal
Production (MT) Compared To Deyr 2001, 2002 and PWA*
Production |
Regions |
Deyr 2003
|
|
|
%
change in production: 2003 vs. 2001 |
%
change in production: 2003 vs. 2002 |
%
change in production: 2003 vs PWA |
|
Sorghum |
Maize |
S+M |
|
|
|
Bakol
|
360 |
0 |
360 |
-82% |
-90% |
-76% |
Bay |
29,500 |
2,100 |
31,600 |
-17% |
-27% |
14% |
Gedo |
5,935 |
1,825 |
7,760 |
106% |
-20% |
76% |
Hiran |
2,840 |
630 |
3,470 |
-70% |
-74% |
-55% |
Lower
Juba |
75 |
940 |
1,015 |
-8% |
-19% |
-51% |
Lower
Shabelle |
10,650 |
29,490 |
40,140 |
-32% |
-37% |
2% |
Middle
Juba |
2,250 |
1,560 |
3,810 |
9% |
-5% |
-10% |
Middle
Shabelle |
1,405 |
11,400 |
12,805 |
-41% |
-61% |
-8% |
Total
|
53,015 |
47,945 |
100,960 |
-28% |
-41% |
0% |
*
PWA (Post War Average 1995-2002) |
Figure 8 : Map
Showing 2003/2004 Deyr
Cereal Production Compared To Post War Average
|
