WASHINGTON—In
claiming
responsibility for
Sunday's deadly
bombings in Uganda,
the Somali group al
Shabaab appeared to
raise its sights
from running large
swaths of one of
Africa's most
lawless countries to
embracing al Qaeda's
call for global
jihad.
The triple bombing
in Kampala, which
left 76 dead, would
mark the first foray
beyond war-torn
Somalia by a group
whose primary focus
for years was to
impose a radical
Islamist agenda
inside Somalia. The
attacks show what
Africa and terror
experts say is the
growing influence in
the group of foreign
fighters with ties
to Osama bin Laden's
global terror
network.
Al Shabaab was
formally created in
about 2003 as a
successor movement
to violent Islamist
groups that had been
crushed in the late
1990s. It is now the
target of an
offensive by
Somalia's elected
government, which
controls a sliver of
Somalia's capital.
In recent years, al
Shabaab has claimed
to have moved closer
to al Qaeda. In late
2008, al Shabaab
leaders pledged
fealty to Mr. bin
Laden. Early the
next year, al Qaeda
welcomed al Shabaab
to its global fight.
Earlier this year,
al Shabaab announced
it was formally
linking its local
fight to al Qaeda's
global jihad.
"The links between
al Qaeda and al
Shabaab are
stronger," said
David Shinn, the
former U.S.
ambassador to
Ethiopia and an
expert on al Shabaab.
He and a U.S.
counterterrorism
expert said the two
groups work together
to train operatives.
Al Shabaab's force
numbers a few
thousand fighters,
by some estimates,
to more than 10,000.
A contingent of
foreign fighters is
said to number a few
hundred and include
other Africans,
Arabs and even
Westerners.
In late 2008, a
score of
Somali-Americans
left Minnesota to
join al Shabaab.
Last month, two men
were arrested at JFK
International
Airport allegedly on
their way to join
the Somali group.
One of al Shabaab's
top commanders,
known as Abu Mansoor
al-Amriki, is from
Alabama.
Top commanders have
spent time in
Afghanistan and
Pakistan, says
Rashid Abdi, Horn of
Africa analyst in
Nairobi for the
International Crisis
Group. "What al
Shabaab has become
is a multinational
terror network, like
al Qaeda if not al
Qaeda," he says.
Analysts say two
factions have
emerged within the
group. One wants to
stay focused on
bringing down the
government, a goal
for which they'll
need to retain some
support among
Somalia's
population. Those
aligned with al
Qaeda don't share
those priorities,
says Anneli Botha, a
senior researcher on
terrorism at the
Institute for
Security Studies, a
think tank based in
Pretoria.
But to some extent
there is an
alignment of goals
between Somali
nationalists with an
eye on regional
expansion and
jihadists eager to
strike out at
perceived regional
enemies that include
Christians, other
Muslims, moderate
politicians and
supporters of
Somalia's interim
government.
In recent months, al
Shabaab had
threatened
countries, including
Uganda, that
contribute
peacekeeping troops
in support of the
Somali transitional
government. The U.S.
is the major backer
of the African
peacekeeping troops.
"This is really an
unpleasant
confluence of goals
between the
nationalist and
international wing
of al Shabaab," said
Roger Middleton, a
Somalia analyst at
London-based think
tank Chatham House.
"Regionalization of
the conflict is a
rational strategy
for al Shabaab. They
are stronger when
there are foreign
boots on the ground,
and weaker
otherwise," said
William Braniff, an
instructor at the
Combatting Terrorism
Center at West
Point.
The links between al
Shabaab and al
Qaeda—especially al
Qaeda's affiliate in
Yemen—could pose the
biggest threat to
the U.S. Al Qaeda in
the Arabian
Peninsula, as the
Yemeni affiliate is
known, was behind
several recent
high-profile attacks
on the U.S.,
including the failed
Christmas Day
bombing of a
Detroit-bound
airliner.
Siobhan Gorman,
Peter Wonacott and
Nicholas Bariyo
contributed to this
article.







