“If you want to know your past, look into your present conditions. If you want to know your future, look into your present actions.” Buddhist Saying

Fast-forward 25 years to 2030. It may look a bit too far but any future date comes quickly particularly for those who are powerless to determine their own future or to alter their destiny. 2030 will be an era where only nations with good systems of governance will thrive and nations with corrupt governments that are gasping for air today or relying on natural resources could join the failed states club currently led by Somalia. Democracy will be the norm. Intellectual capital will determine which state that can survive and prosper and which one will be the economic roadkill on the globalization superhighway or live on the sympathy of those who are flourishing.

Countries that have good upstanding business ethics will outclass countries dominated by corruption. People who comfortably live with their neighbours will have less pressure on their national security side than those who are at odds with their neighbours. If the year 2030 is going to be all the above, it will be interesting to predict what shape Somalia (a failed state now) will have in that year.

Subsequent to the debacle of Somalia’s central government in 1991 much has been documented about the crisis in this country, but less is said hitherto the notable challenges that the Somalis may face in the future. This article will avoid looking Somalia purely through the eye of a paranoia illusionist or an optimistic illusionist. Given the problematic history of Somalia future prediction is not going to be easy; however, this piece of writing presents one of the most likelihood scenarios.

In 2030, Somalia will have a government but not a good government. This nation experienced a short-lived democracy between its independence and 1969. Then a military junta regime came to power which reigned until 1990 and a civil war has enveloped the country ever since.

Somalia is the longest running instance of state collapse in the history of nations and to this background to have a viable government in 2030 is an achievement itself if the gangs and warlords who have dominated this land are not dealt with immediately. Nevertheless, between now and 2030 Somalia will have a range of governments from a paper government to a functioning government that is primarily concerned with economic benefiting clan powers, rather than values of democracy and social welfare.

To have a good government there must be a good administrative process that upholds the law fully. In the history of Somalia, the law has never been applied to the weak and powerful equally. If any word deserves to be accused of leading Somalis to bend the law and nourish favouritism, there is hardly any word that can beat “ina adeer” means my cousin.

A person uses this word to show that he is related either by birth or affinity to another person to get sympathetic ears. When “ina adeer” fails to attract kindly ears, money talks. Thus, it is difficult to foresee a Somali government that enforces the law equally between unimportant and influential people.

Another element that will lead Somalia not to have a good government is transparency. In Somalia, it is unusual for a politician no matter what capacity - president, prime minister, secretary of state, member of parliament - who makes full, accurate, and timely disclosure of information. Somalis need more than 25 years to develop a culture that entertains transparency.

Somalia will have a democratically elected government but not a genuine democracy. This country will be struggling with social problems and recurring governance crises for a long time to come. In order to have a true democracy, the following elements must be in position: public accountability, impartial judicial institutions and well-structured and well-functioning institutions. Given the current situation that exists in Somalia now, it is not likely that Somalis can put in place democratic institutions, processes and climate that will enable them to nurture a political system that has the capacity for self-correction before 2030.

Present Somali leaders have yet to show a broad and long-term view on good governance and human development, together with a sense of what is required for such development. Furthermore, they have so far failed to build the national concourse that Somali citizens could rebuild their future. The best democracy that Somalia can have by 2030 is the kind of democracy that existed between 1960 -1969.

In other words, Somalia will have a unique democratic system in the year 2030. The country will have some elements of democracy such as freedom of speech. People will elect their representatives mainly on clan bases rather than ideology. Tribalism, nepotism, corruption, and misrule will be there. The prospect of Somalia having effective commercial laws, transparent financial institutions and regulatory supervision agencies supported by an impartial judiciary and citizens who do not give greater political and emotional allegiance to their clans by the year 2030 is bare minimum considering the current situation that Somalia is in now.

Somalia will have diverse relationships with its neighbours if Somalia disintegrates or the proposed federal system becomes a fully-fledged. Somalia has always liked to match political boundaries with Somali ethnic boundaries. This means the concept identified as pan-Somalism will have a different meaning. After the scramble for Africa, Somali was divided into five spheres of influence, Ethiopia took the Ogaden region and NFD went to Kenya and what is now known as Somalia has never felt comfortable with its neighbours ever since.

Geographically, Somalia lies in the Horn of Africa and adjacent to the Arabian Peninsula, naturally, Somalia is at the crossroads between the African and Arab cultures. Somalia’s fate has been swinging like hypnotist’s watch between Africa and Arab world and there has been a distinct atmosphere of confrontation between those who push Somalia to move closer toward the Arab world and those who want Somalia to have a close relationship with neighbouring countries. Globalization geopolitics is a complex issue and if Arab countries choose to act as guest of honours at the international political arena, Somalis will learn to coexist with its neighbours but this does not mean the road to coexisting will not be a bumping one.

In 2030, Somalia will not be quite well-off but it is expected to do better on the economic front than its neighbouring countries. Since the civil war broke out Somalis have shown an incredible capacity to withstand hardship and challenges using their entrepreneurial skills and that they can even compete with bordering countries, which have functioning governments. Somalia is a failed state partly because it could not fit the Golden Straitjacket – the financial restructuring - recommended by the IMF in the late 1980s. Strangely, Somali is now a stateless capitalism which is free from government red tape - actually there is no government. The country has informal but efficient financial institutions, modern information and communication technology which make information to be vastly available.

The tribal warfare has forced almost one millions Somalis to seek refuge in different parts of the world; inadvertently the conflict has essentially globalised the Somali society and allowed them to operate on global scale thanks to the growth in information and communication technology. The remittance organisations currently bring an estimated US $750 to US $1 billion annually from over one million Somali migrants living abroad.

The Somali people are now running businesses in a unique way in order to survive under a collapsed economy. When stability returns Somalia will attract investments both from Somalis and the international development investors. Somalis, who fled or born outside out their country, will not bring back wealth only but they will also come back with knowledge and experiences that can boost the economy.

However, it is a gross blunder if the following issues are not taken into account when economic matters are discussed. Somalia is now a damping ground for the shoddy and low-grade products and toxic waste. This indicates that there will be social and health concerns that will encumber the economic prospect of the country. The current charcoal trade is destroying the country and desertification is a shocking reality in Somalia.

According to a report published by the UN 'Somalia Socio-Economic Survey' - the first study of socio-economic conditions in the country since the civil war broke out, shows “only one in four men and 13 percent of women are literate in today's Somalia. A total of 81 percent of Somalis can neither read nor write.” This clearly shows that education has been the principal victim of the civil war and lack of education will have a negative impact on the economic performance of the country.

Somalia will no longer be the most ethnically homogenous country in Africa in 2030. Culture, language, religion and way of life will be in a big contention. Somalis who will be going back to their country will bring with them a new culture, language and perspective and they may find difficult to form a greater shared values with the rest of the society. People who want to embrace a global culture will not find easy to deal with those who are still advocating a local culture.

In short, Somalia has experience a prolonged civil war which killed a lot of people and forced many Somalis to flee from their country. The civil war has debilitated the country, stifled the economy, incapacitated the public and private sectors, and caused distress and hardship on the society at large. Therefore, it is reasonable to assume that the worst is over but Somalis are facing the task of recreating a failed state that does not have a social solidarity and political unity. This task is not short and simple. It takes a lot of time and energy to deal with ramification of the civil war and build the necessary inter-governmental checks and balances that can stop a future government to collapse.

Finally, the best Somalia can hope to achieve by 2030 in terms of stability and economic development is what Somalia had between 1960s - 1970s. Therefore, Somalia will be poorly equipped to live in the globalization system. This gloomy outlook can only be challenged if Somalis intensify the peace and reconciliation efforts, replace current, inept leaders with leaders who have strategic vision and know how to translate that vision into action. Develop a culture that encourages fairness, equality, transparency and hardworking. Somalia is not preordained to be a failure country forever but what kind of future Somalia will have much depends how Somalis choose their future to be. Frank Tyger, a well-known writer, once said “Your future depends on many things, but mostly on you”



Mohamed Mukhtar
London
Email:     mohamed323@hotmail.com