The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), the
regional organization for East African countries that
include, among others, Kenya, Ethiopia and Somalia, has
recently published an unsigned and troubling Memorandum of
Understanding (MOU) which indicates that the new government
of Somalia is allowing Kenya and Ethiopia to oversee the
“political and administrative arrangements in South-central
Somalia.” Ethiopia claims that this MOU was signed by a
Somali General, Mohamed Sheikh Hassan, authorized by the
Somali Prime Minister.
This unsigned MOU theoretically provides the legal platform
for the securitization of all the Somali regions in the
South without delineating the areas of jurisdiction, core
operations and oversight. Furthermore, the MOU creates legal
questions with respect to the operations of the troops under
the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) as there is no
reference about these forces in the document. The MOU
supposedly legitimizes the escalation and presence of the
Kenyan and Ethiopian troops and the involvement of the two
countries in Somalia. Moreover, it is designed to undermine
the leadership of the Somali President, Hassan Sheikh
Mohamud as it gives no consideration to the sovereignty and
territorial integrity of Somalia. Given that Kenya and
Ethiopia have been and continue to be the destabilizing
actors in Somalia, the Somali people believe that these
countries intend to derail the new Somali government’s
priority to stabilize and unite the country.
By claiming to be pursuing a fight against the extremist
group inside Somalia known as Al-Shabaab, both countries
have deployed their troops inside Somalia without any legal
endorsement and insist on arranging local administrations in
Somalia, thereby interfering in the political independence,
sovereignty and territorial integrity of Somalia. Both
countries receive political, military and economic
assistance from the United States and its allies as they are
convenient and effective allies in the “war against Al-Shabaab.”
This opportune arrangement is not viewed favourably in
Somalia.
Similarly, it should be noted that while the Special
Representative of the Secretary General for Somalia, Mr.
Mahiga has welcomed the MOU in an official statement and has
underscored that Somalia was represented, no Somali
government official has acknowledged that Somalia was
represented at the alleged meeting that was held on December
06, 2012. This raises some concern about Mr. Mahiga’s
position and as a result, the UN might find itself drawn
into a diplomatic tag of war.
Dr. Weinstein explains the motives of Kenya and Ethiopia in
his article, “Kenya’s Political Failure in Southern Somalia”
as he notes that Kenya and Ethiopia have a grand design in
mind for Somalia. He argues, by the time these two countries
complete the plan, Southern Somalia will have three distinct
“semi-autonomous states” that are ruled by “Somali clients.”
Kenya is to establish the Jubbaland state by merging the
three Somali regions close to its border, the Lower Jubba,
Middle Jubba and Gedo. Ethiopia would impose its will on
most of the central regions of Somalia. The AMISOM forces
would establish the third “state”, Banadir region, along
with Mogadishu and its surrounding areas. By creating these
entities, Kenya and Ethiopia hope to create weak and
unstable Somalia as they view a strong Somalia as a security
threat.
However, the Somali people have shown earnest support for
the Somali President, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud who has opposed
the interference in the affairs of Somalia by Kenya and
Ethiopia. His stance has drawn nasty diplomatic attacks from
these governments and they may have resorted to political
manipulation through the MOU that arguably authorizes them
to implement their grand design of establishing
“semi-autonomous states” thereby implicating that the new
Somali government is their “client” in the eyes of the
Somali people.
Kenya’s insistence that it should be allowed to complete its
Jubbaland plan clearly violates the political independence
and sovereignty of Somalia. However, the MOU has the
objective to provide legal cover for Ethiopia and Kenya.
Interestingly, it has no signature, making it suspect at
best. The new Prime Minister of Ethiopia, Mr. Hailemariam
has given few interviews regarding Somalia and strangely
sends mixed messages, insisting on the need to have
“inclusive process in Somalia”, while also sounding
conciliatory towards Somalia, deferring matters related to
Somalia to the Somali national government. However, this MOU
underscores the need for Somalia to strengthen its political
and diplomatic practices and negotiations and the necessity
to assert itself on the domestic front.
The Somali people are nervously waiting for clarification
regarding the MOU from the Somali government. One way or
another, the arrangements outlined in the MOU will have
enormous and lasting consequences on peace and security in
the Horn of Africa.
________________
Abdi Dirshe is a political analyst and is also the current
president of the Somali Canadian Diaspora Alliance.
Email:
a.dirshe@hotmail.com
The opinions
contained in this article are solely those of the writer, and it does not represent the
editorial opinions of kacadeey online |
