From Somali perspective the Kampala tragedy on the event World Cup Final in South Africa 2010, was entirely predictable. From Uganda government’s perspective that was far-fetched incident.

Many in the International Community have doubted Al-Shaba’s ability to carry out terrorist activities outside Somalia, probably underestimating the groups growing popularity with chauvinist Somali and non-Somali youth throughout Islamic world. What we need to understand is that Islamists movements, in general and Al-Shabab in particular, oppose the current international order. They offer an alternative system based on pre-modern way of life that according to them, resembles the early Islamic government of the Prophet Muhammad (PUH) and his disciples otherwise known as “rightly guided caliphs” (al-khulafa' ar-rashidun).

To some, Al-Shabab is a terrorist organization. Others hold the view that they represent a resistance which aims to challenge the world order and the powers that regulate them. So do the Taliban in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Somalia is unfortunately befallen into the hands of opposing foreign actors and became the grass below the giant elephants fighting each other.

We should not underestimate that Al-Shabab is a de-facto government for most of Somalia’s South for nearly two years controlling all locally available resources. Unlike TFG, they are in firm control of instruments of power, taxing people and goods at will.

While the TFG and its allies huffs and puffs, Al-Shabab successfully runs these regions confidently putting in action their brand of sharia, and forcing others to follow suit. Astonishingly, the TFG has become a laughing stock and their empirical sovereignty is shrinking by the day. To date, Al-Shabab is knocking the gates of Villa Somalia, protected by the Ugandan and Burundi contingents under the rubric of AMISOM. So Why Al-Shabab claimed the atrocities of soccer event in Kampala? Isn’t that an indiscriminate bombing of innocent civilians prohibited under the international law? Indeed it is. So do the indiscriminate shelling of Mogadishu civilians targeted by the Amisom troops as well as the insurgents, in their bitter exchanges. Human Rights Watch has condemned Al-Shaba’s harsh treatment to the populace as well as AMISOM’s indiscriminate shelling of civilians in Mogadishu. See Somalia: Al-Shabab Metes Out Repression in the South . Unfortunately, nobody took heed of their appeal as the blood of Mogadishu inhabitants is cheap. The rest of international community remained tight lipped. For them, horrible it may be, the civilian casualties in Mogadushu, condemning such acts is akin to appeasing Al-Shabab-something utterly unacceptable.

In sum, Mogadishu is trapped between the AMISOM’s BM (multiple rocket launchers) and the Al-Shabab’s Bazookas, and it will remain so until a credible government emerges in the Capital Mogadishu. No matter what support the world gives to the present TFG, they are unlikely to make headway. The problem in Mogadishu is lack of capable, visionary leadership which can pull Somalia out of its current malaise. It is the weakness of the TFG, rather than the strength of its opponents, which paralyzed Somalia. The world should either leave Somalia to its own devices so that the strongest will prevail or help credible leadership to emerge from the South/or encourage Somaliland to take lead in order to help turn the tide of extremism in the Horn of Africa. The alternative is worse. If AU or Ethiopian troops are deployed in Somalia as kneejerk reaction to Kampala events, and the shelling of Somali civilians continue, it will undoubtly help A-Shabab to grow bigger and faster, perhaps to take over the whole Somali territory in few months, and expand further across the Red Sea, in which case the whole world will be alerted.

Finally, we should bear in mind that Al-Shabab and Hisbul Islam are the continuation Islamic Courts Union, whose executive chairman Sh Sharif Ahmed serves the president of TFG. They have both personal and principal grievances against TFG and its leadership. Like other Islamic resistance, Al-Shabab is an idea, and no one ever claimed to have defeated an idea with military means. To defeat an idea, you should come up with a more powerful and convincing idea.


Abdullahi Jama
Email: Benadam43@hotmail.com

The writer is a Somali political analyst which authored many essays and articles about political Islam.
 
 


 

The opinions contained in this article are solely those of the writer, and it does not represent the editorial opinions of Markacadeey online