So far, the consultations for the preparation of the London
Conference on Somalia have been described as mere
presentations of seven pre-determined themes while the views
and suggestions of the Somali participants have been
characterized as ambitious, opposing, and non-operational.
Sure, the Somali views are diverse, opposing, not filtered
or unharmonized but they share the deep desire for
sovereign, democratic and peaceful post independence Somalia
under a legitimate and accountable government that responds
primarily to the needs and aspirations of the Somali people.
That common desire is ambitious at this moment for which
there is a strong need of an international help and
commitment essentially focused on rebuilding the collapsed
State of Somalia if there is serious concern and sympathy
for Somalia. Failing or ignoring to take seriously that
desire could foil the realization of many other positive
objectives. The theme of addressing the causes of the Somali
conflict and the need for new approach mentioned in the
speech of UK PM, David Cameron seems abandoned or
unarticulated while the publicly rejected Roadmap of the
United Nations Political Office for Somalia (UNPOS) took the
center stage.
The following seven themes hold different meanings to the
Somali people as illustrated below:
1. Security: Means no professional responsible Somali
national Security forces under the exclusive control of a
legitimate national government and instead more foreign
forces in Somalia. A local authority protected and empowered
by foreign forces cannot be accountable to the Somali
people.
2. Political Process: Means continuation of vassal
Transitional Federal Government (TFG)’s model of IGAD, clan
based regional states, letters to the Diaspora from the
Special Representative of the Secretary General, and abusive
threats and accusations as spoilers of peace to the critics
of the inept TFG, Kenya and Ethiopian intervention in
Somalia or opponents to Kampala Accord, the deceitful
Roadmap or UNPOS’s wrongheaded policies. Even the
representatives of the people of Somalia (Members of
Parliament) are not immune from the foreign threats for
punishment in fulfilling their constitutional rights and
responsibilities. IGAD’s angry letter (IGAD threatens
sanctions over Somali parliament) to the MPs who ousted the
ex Speaker Sharif Hassan is a frightening and appalling
example of infringement of Somalia’s sovereignty and proves
the falsity of the international legitimacy conferred to
TFG. In clear terms, Somalia is presently under the direct
control of Addis Ababa.
3. Local stability: Means expansion of the Dual Track Policy
which expedites Somalia’s fragmentation and conflict for
resource and power competition.
4. Counter-Terrorism: Means insecurity, loss of dignity,
freedom, death of innocent people in the hunt of terrorists,
and deprivation of vulnerable Somalis from foreign
remittances incomes and denial of humanitarian assistance in
addition to Al Shabab’s cruel bans. Banks have been
pressured to stop transfers of money to Somalia for
counter-terrorism reasons.
5. Piracy: Means restriction of the Somali territorial water
and utilization of marine resources, imposition of Exclusive
Economic Zone (EEZ), continuation of illegal fishing and
dumping toxic waste.
6. Humanitarian: Means intensification of the current
Somalia’s depopulation by increasing the refugees, the
displaced and impoverished population due to the massive
military interventions and actions in Somalia.
7. International Coordination: Means increased support for
the disintegration, polarization and division of Somalia
rather than increased support for Somali driven peace,
reconciliation and nation building.
Many like me hoped that a well structured, serious, intense
and well funded consultations based on real examination of
the actual situation of Somalia prior to the date of the
conference would offset the doubt about the importance of a
half day Conference on Somalia with the participation of
more than 40 delegations. Now that hope dimmed.
Currently, there are seven parallel operational plans that
are running simultaneously so that nothing will work for
Somalia. The first plan is Kenya/Ethiopia (IGAD) strategy
for Lower and Middle Jubba, Gedo, Bay and Bakol. The Amin
Amir’s right picture in the box explains the plan. President
Kibaki is asking PM Meles to leave the areas liberated by
Kenyan forces after massacring Al Shabab and civilians. But
PM Meles Zenawi refused and responded by saying, “you don’t
know anything. I have been manipulating this country in the
past 20 years.” Therefore, PM Meles relaxes on the bleeding
Somalia. The strategy defines how the two countries could
share the control of those regions independently from the
rest of Somalia.
The second plan is IGAD/AU/UN strategy developed in Addis
Ababa by a Joint Task Force of bureaucrats and it
perpetuates the chaos in Somalia as long as possible so that
Somalia ceases to exist as a nation. This plan has
international attraction because it experiments new
precedence for the cooperation between regional/continental
and international organizations. The plan submitted by
IGAD/AU to the UN Security Council deals chiefly with
security matters and conditions the establishment of
Government in Somalia to the success of security goals which
could take more than 15 years. Al Shabab withdrew from
Mogadishu on August 2011 and after six months AMISOM/TFG
forces moved less than three miles with huge cost.
The third plan is the UK led London Conference on Somalia,
which has started with the hope of state building in Somalia
but now it recycles the roadmap themes. The plan introduces
a new element which is called a Joint Financial Management
Board. The High Level Political Committee and the Joint
Security Committee established in Djibouti, and the Joint
Financial Management Board expected to be established in
London will constitute the instruments (institutions) of
illegal International Trusteeship Administration on Somalia.
In the context of London Conference, it has been circulated
an Italian proposal which advocates a 16 months of UN/AU
Trusteeship or what it is called Transitional Administration
on Somalia. The Italian proposal has formally documented the
total failure of the TFG and international efforts.
Theoretically, the proposal is far better than the current
situation of TFG’s vassal model or what Prof Afyare Elmi
called “stealth trusteeship” on Somalia under disparate
actors.
The fourth plan is sponsored by Ethiopia for the
disintegration and destabilization of Somaliland. This plan
covers the creation of Khatumo State and Awdal State. In
spite of the fact that the Ethiopian forces escorted the
participants of Talex Conference, some believed that the
efforts led by former Prime Minister Prof. Ali Khalif, Dr.
Ali Isse Abdi and Abdikarim Jama for the creation of Khatumo
State will help Somalia’s unity. But emerging information
indicates that Khatumo State and Awdal State are more prone
to join the Somali Regional State of Ethiopia rather than
unite with Somaliland, Puntland or Somalia. These
developments could ignite new political dynamics that could
produce serious consequences in the future.
The fifth plan is the roadmap and the Garowe Principles
owned and managed by UNPOS through the TFG and Puntland. The
central aim of this plan is to produce a federal
constitution before March 2012 and new parliament against
the will of the majority of the Somali people. The plan
extends the TFG vassal model for another four years.
The sixth plan is the counter-terrorism operations executed
by multiple security contractors under the US Government
control. This plan works with the intelligence and other
independent local contractors.
The seventh plan is sponsored by the Government of Turkey.
It focuses on humanitarian, relief and social development
needs. It leaves out the political and security matters or
governance issues.
The TFG as a government has no input or role in all these
plans because everyone knows its ineptitude. It is
figuratively responsible for the acknowledgement of their
ownership. All plans are disconnected from the Somali
reality, interests and needs.
The support of TFG for the past seven years has reinforced
Somalia’s territorial fragmentation. The map in the box
conveys several messages. First, it considers Somalia only
the territory below Galkaio. This is the operational map for
the international community. Second it indicates the
different areas of new Somalia controlled by foreign forces
and local Militia. Third, it shows that the capital
Mogadishu is under the control of AMISOM forces. Available
information to the international community unequivocally
confirms that there are no Government security forces in
Mogadishu in accordance with the Transitional Federal
Charter, which has been deliberately violated and disabled.
While the declared aims of the conference are inspiring, it
is fair to say that, based on the conference’s details, the
London Conference disregarded Somalia’s expectation for
self-governance and it is far from addressing the real
problem of Somalia which is the formation of the Somali
State. The actions of the International Community, Al Shabab
and the TFG leaders are precipitating Somalia’s complete
demise. Somalia faces the situation of either to sink or
swim collectively. Only Somali Citizen Patriots can save
Somalia. Ambassador David Shinn stated rightly that he
doubts that it will be possible to end the conflict in
Somalia unless the Somalis huddle to discuss their future at
their expenses inside Somalia without foreign participation.
Mr. Mohamud M Uluso
Email:
mohamuduluso@gmail.com
The opinions
contained in this article are solely those of the writer, and it does not represent the
editorial opinions of Markacadeey online |
