ANALYSIS
In Somalia, the radical Islamist militia, Al-Shabab, that
has terrorized much of the country over the past five years,
appears to be on the run. They have been forced out of the
capital, Mogadishu, and all of the major towns that were
once under their control (including Kismayo in the South).
But those who believe the Shabaab are finished could find
that they are sorely mistaken.
The eradication of Al-Shabaab, although essential to the
peace and security of both Somalia and its neighbours, is
unlikely to be achieved by military force alone. What is
actually required is a coordinated and sustained regional
effort to eliminate the underlying causes of the growth of
Islamist radicalism among Somali youth including assistance
to effectively address the persistent and structural
humanitarian crisis affecting most of Somalia.
Key requirements include improved governance, and concerted
efforts to rebuild and expand Somali livelihoods, and the
country's economy. Most of the current generation of Somalis
have grown up in conditions of conflict, insecurity of
livelihood and deprivation. This has tended to make many of
them vulnerable to the arguments and promises of the
Islamist militants. The new Somali Government must avoid the
corruption trap and tendencies towards dividing up the
governmental 'cake' along clan lines, and focus its efforts
on solving the livelihood problems faced by the majority of
the country's population.
The new government must also urgently address humanitarian
issues and start the flow of food aid to the areas liberated
from Al- Shabaab. The Shabaab alienated large groups of
people in southern and central Somalia by allowing them to
die of hunger, rather than permit aid organizations to give
them food. If the arrival of food aid, and assistance for
reconstruction follows quickly in the tracks of the Kenyan
and AMISOM forces, that will strengthen the local
constituency for the elimination of Al-Shabaab in the
country.
Food aid is a necessary but temporary expedient. It helps to
keep people alive, while plans to enable them to earn a
livelihood are being made. This is an area in which there is
a vital role for the international community to play in
putting Somalia back on the road to development and
self-reliance.
Along with conflict, drought and desertification are key
causes of impoverishment and destitution in large areas of
Somalia and adjacent regions of Ethiopia and Kenya. With an
increasing population, there is more pressure on the land
and its limited resources. Drought and desertification
disasters are occurring at increasingly shorter intervals,
with less opportunity for recovery. Hundreds of thousands of
rural households in Somalia and neighbouring regions of
Ethiopia and Kenya have lost most of the livestock on which
they depend, dropping entire communities into chronic
destitution.
Implications for the IGAD region
Regional economic integration could make an important
contribution to addressing these shared problems, in the
context of the Intergovernmental Authority for Development
(IGAD) - the Regional Economic Commission for the Horn of
Africa. It provides the institutional framework for regional
economic integration, towards increasing prosperity and
integration into the global economy.
The countries of the region are bound by history and
geography in relationships of interdependence with
considerable potential for cooperation for their common
development, for example, through transport corridors to
seaports, management of shared water resources, and improved
energy security.
Much of rural Somalia is gripped in a livelihood crisis with
increasingly serious implications for human security. It is
a situation that demands substantial investment in the
integrated development of the region's land and water
resources and creating sustainable alternative livelihoods.
The key requirements for this include improved
infrastructure to provide reliable access to transport,
water and affordable energy. In particular, the
rehabilitation of the country's internal roads and their
interconnection with those of the neighbouring countries
could open the way to increased trade, economic growth and
poverty reduction.
Similarly, the ongoing oil price crisis makes affordable
energy a key problem faced by countries that like Somalia
where people largely depend on oil fired electricity
generation. But this could be addressed by interconnection
with Ethiopia's electricity grid to enable it to purchase
much cheaper hydroelectricity, a solution already agreed by
Djibouti, Kenya and Sudan, in the context of the planned
East African Power Pool (EAPP).
The EAPP is already on the way to becoming part of a new
regional reality, and a key example of regional economic
integration. In September 2012 the African Development Bank
(AfDB) approved USD348 million in funding for a USD 1.26
billion project for an electricity transmission line
connecting Ethiopia and Kenya. This is a key step towards
the establishment of the East African Power Pool, which may
later be connected to a Southern Africa Power Pool. The
project will promote power trade and regional integration.
Djibouti is already interconnected with Ethiopia's power
grid and buying Ethiopian hydropower at a fraction of the
cost of oil-based power generation. The same could be done
for Somalia.
Addressing the basic issues of sustainable rural livelihoods
will need to be undertaken through forms of regional
economic integration that encourage the cooperative
development of the shared water resources of this drought
disaster-prone region comprising Somalia, the Ethiopian
Somali region (the Ogaden) and northeastern Kenya. These
areas are inextricably linked in terms of ethnic ties,
economic exchange and inter-dependence, shared natural
resources, and the constant cross-border movement of their
pastoral populations.
The Way Forward
There is an important opportunity for joint development of
the hydroelectric and irrigation potential of the Shabelle
and Dawa-Gennale-Juba river basins in the context of
infrastructure-led regional economic integration. The
cooperative development of the shared water resources of
this drought prone region of Somalia, Kenya and Ethiopia
offers considerable potential to rehabilitate the
livelihoods of their populations and put them on the path to
sustainable development and peace.
Multi-purpose dams on the Shabelle and Dawa-Gennale-Juba
rivers could contribute to the hydroelectric power needs of
the three countries, enhance their irrigation potential, and
prevent the recurrent floods that from time to time
devastate large areas of the lower Shabelle and Gennale-Juba
basins, leading to serious loss of life and property. It
would need significant investment, but it would be far
cheaper than the costs of chronic conflict and humanitarian
disasters and the economic returns would repay the
investment.
With a million hectares of irrigable land on the Ethiopian
side and hundreds of thousands within Somalia, both
countries would benefit from such development. This would
enable irrigation-based agriculture, livestock raising,
agro-processing, and employment, for those who choose to
settle, as well as those who are already settled, but are
often affected by recurrent drought, and food insecurity. It
would also reduce the chronic poverty and resource
competition that are among the major underlying causes of
conflict.
The dams to be built in the two main river basins would
control the massive periodic floods like those that occurred
in the lower Juba valley a decade ago, resulting in the loss
of hundreds of thousands of livestock and considerable loss
of human life. The regular availability of water would
prevent the loss of huge numbers of valuable livestock, and
crops to frequent drought disasters. Along with disaster
prevention, they would also provide opportunities for
hydropower production. The availability of affordable
hydropower could provide a key economic missing link, by
opening the way to agro-processing, adding value to
agricultural and livestock production, providing employment
for the population, and reducing poverty. This could also
make a major contribution to reduction of resource
competition and conflict risk.
As in India and China, labour-intensive light manufacturing
has significant potential to put the Horn of Africa on the
road to development. Countries like Ethiopia and Somalia
have the necessary cheap labour for this, but what they need
to make the jump is abundant, affordable and reliable
electricity, to enable them to add value to their
production, for example, by exporting meat and leather
products, rather than livestock on the hoof.
Somalia, once it settles its internal conflicts, will be
well-positioned to benefit from regional economic
integration. This, of course, will depend to a large degree
on the success of the new government, with the assistance of
the AU forces in defeating the Al-Shabaab militias, and
establishing an acceptable level of governance. If
successful, a peaceful Somalia could have the opportunity,
based on the shared water resources of the Dawa-Gennale-Juba,
and Shabelle river basins, to rebuild its long neglected
agricultural and livestock economies.
In the context of IGAD and regional economic integration, a
peaceful Somalia, would also be well-positioned to benefit
from Ethiopian use of its port facilities, as Ethiopia
begins to tap the agricultural and livestock development
potential of its Ogaden region. The closest ports to the
southeastern Ogaden are those of Mogadishu and Kismayo. This
would open the way to a new and more constructive,
cooperative and peaceful relationship between the two
countries.
This is particularly important in view of the rapid increase
in population numbers across much of the area, and the
increasing pressure of fast-growing populations on
diminishing resources. The more effective and cooperative
use of the region's water resources, could make important
contributions to economic development, to the reduction of
poverty, periodic food insecurity, hunger and conflict risk.
The potential for irrigated agriculture and
livestock-raising could serve as a lifebelt for both farming
and pastoral populations dependent on erratic rainfall, in
the context of periodic drought and food shortages, and
increasing poverty. It would open the way to sustainable
rural livelihoods, and to increased opportunities for urban
employment and trade, within Somalia, and between Somalia
and its neighbours.
In the context of regional economic integration, this would
reduce resource competition and accelerate development and
livelihood opportunities. It would also reduce conflict risk
by providing the populations on both sides of the border
with resources and opportunities that they could not afford
to jeopardize, or allow to be jeopardized, through conflict.
____________________
Seifulaziz Milas is a writer on the Horn of Africa and
author of Sharing the Nile: Egypt, Ethiopia and the
Geo-Politics of Water.
The opinions
contained in this article are solely those of the writer, and it does not represent the
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